Mike Young, of Decision Workshops, has just released a screencast explaining how to use confrontation analysis to analyze political confrontations. He uses the approach to model the current tensions in Bahrain. The screencast makes extensive use of Decision Workshops' proprietary Microsoft Excel-based modeling tool. More information on this tool can be obtained by contacting Decision Workshops … [Read more...]

Publishing your data isn't enough---consumers have to be able to find and use it. The Open Knowledge Foundation has officially recognized this through its Frictionless Data initiative. They propose: simple formats (e.g. CSV, JSON) simple tooling---i.e. the ability to get data in and out of standard software packages, such as Excel, R and Hadoop. bootstrapping the system with essential data … [Read more...]

General Sir David Richards, Britain's most senior military officer recently published a reading list (of 90 books) for candidates to the UK's Defence Academy. I was interested to see books like "Blink" (instinctive decision-making) and "Thinking Fast and Slow" (behavioral decision-making) on the list. Maybe "Nudge" should be there too. Also of note is General Sir Rupert Smith's book "The Utility … [Read more...]

Another week, another embarrassing spreadsheet error. Two Harvard professors conceded that they made a spreadsheet "coding error" in analysis that formed the basis for their recent book. James Kwak, in an article where he describes spreadsheet modeling problems at JPMorgan, said (of Excel) Because it's so easy to use, the creation of even important spreadsheets is not restricted to people … [Read more...]

Government open data initiatives, such as the US' data.gov and the UK' data.gov.uk are to be applauded, but there are still many challenges to be overcome. I'd like to outline three important ones. What are the problems? Open data is a bit like a hammer looking for a nail. There needs to be greater transparency about the problems facing government. Politicians are incentivized to present … [Read more...]

I've just finished reading Jack Hart's "Storycraft: The Complete Guide to Writing Narrative Nonfiction". Now, if you are going to write a book about writing, it'd better be good---and Hart doesn't disappoint. The book explains how compelling stories are comprised of structured elements. One thing that struck me is how closely these structures and elements are aligned with confrontation … [Read more...]

The article "Estimation is Evil" discusses the difficulty of accurately costing software projects---a subject of interest to anyone involved in contract software development. However what struck me most in the article was a discussion of problems with an early, high profile agile project---Chrysler’s C3 payroll project. The author argues that this project failed because it attempted to develop … [Read more...]

Not one, but two, interesting posts from the blog Jury.me this week. One is about focusing on the user. Too many apps are developed from a technical perspective---the latest frameworks, user interface widgets, etc. Great products come from standing in your users' shoes---trying to understand their goals. Why do they need this product? Often it's the product no-one notices that is doing the best … [Read more...]

Budget Playground, an iPad app that allows New York State school districts to create multi-year budget scenarios is now available on the App Store. According to an assistant commissioner at the New York State Education Department, Budget Playground is like magic…It’s a terrific app on an iPad…I love the little charts on the side and the sliders to change scenarios are a very handy … [Read more...]

Decision Mechanics recently developed a location-monitoring iPhone app for InMotion—a personal data management startup. InMotion intends to provide services for individuals to take control of their personal data—sending it to a secure repository and allowing controlled access to third-parties who offer useful derivative services or financial incentives. The iPhone app allows … [Read more...]

BetMachine has been updated to support the taller screen of the iPhone 5. … [Read more...]

Andrew Tait presented at the International Executive Seminar in Effective Leadership and Governance hosted by George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management. The theme of the conference was "policy innovation". Andrew’s talk covered confrontation analysis and the development of political strategy. The conference was attended by senior politicians, civil … [Read more...]

The Central New York Regional Information Center (CNYRIC) has now deployed CohortTracker™ to help their schools identify students who are at risk of not graduating. CNYRIC serves 50 school districts and four Boards of Cooperative Educational Services (BOCES) across eight counties in the central region of New York State. … [Read more...]

An update to BetMachine has just been released. You can download it from the App Store now. Enhancements include: Probability conversion added to the Odds Converter Graphics updated for Retina displays Place terms of 1/1 are now supported in the Returns Calculator … [Read more...]

In the March 2012 edition of Director magazine, Kevin Roberts, CEO of advertising firm Saatchi & Saatchi, is quoted as saying, We live in a ’Vuca’ world—a world that is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous but British companies keep having strategy meetings! What the f***? Indeed. And it's not just British companies. Organizations need to stop having strategy … [Read more...]

In the late '90s, I had a colleague who was fond of saying, "When an operations analyst encounters a problem, he opens a spreadsheet. Now he has two problems..." Indeed. If you are responsible for a project that has a spreadsheet as a deliverable, go and suspend it now. Yes, now. Go on. When you return I'll explain why you had to do it. Done? OK, I'll continue. First, let … [Read more...]

Decision Mechanics, in partnership with Prism Decision Systems, recently developed "Budget Playground"—a school district budget planning iPad app. The app was created as part of a program funded by Cornell University's New York State Center for Rural Schools. Budget Playground allows school district planning staff to forecast budgets up to ten years into the future and interactively modify … [Read more...]

Andrew Tait presented at the International Executive Seminar in Political Management and Governance hosted by George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. The theme of the conference was "governing in turbulent times". Andrew's talk covered stakeholder management (including Confrontation Analysis) and the development of political strategy. The conference … [Read more...]

Districts where residents have the highest average educational achievement tend to be the smaller ones. Staying true to the tradition of blogging, we're stating this without having conducted any research whatsoever. Still, we're confident in the assertion. Oh, and did we mention that districts where residents have the lowest average educational achievement tend to be the smaller ones. Yep. … [Read more...]